2010 was a year of challenges for our industry. We faced falling home prices, increasing foreclosures, expiring home buyer tax credits and tighter lending policies. However we made it! 2011 promises to be a year of transition for our industry. Next year we will get our first taste of our “new normal” market for the next three to seven years. As we close out on 2010, we have seen various positive economic reports in December. Everything from increased hiring expectations, higher holiday sales and increasing consumer confidence! As we get a little wind to our back and consumers feel better about the economy, we will see more homebuyers enter the market. I do not expect to see any price appreciation in the Atlanta market in 2011; but price stabilization would be great! I am 100% convinced we are through the worst and with fewer lenders and agents in the market we are in a great position for growth in 2011! Next year we will continue to offer two week turn times, common sense underwriting and the ability to close loans other lender s will not. The competition will be laying off production staff next year due the forecasted drop in production of 35%! This is due to rates settling in the 5% for the year and refinances drying up. This will continue to drive up closing times and loan denials as the large lenders “cherry pick” the best loans. At Brayden Capital we will continue to offer your clients competitive rates with the best service in the state! Why wait 30-45 days to close when you can close the transaction in two weeks?
I look forward to helping your business grow next year by providing our clients the service, expertise and value they have come to expect. This expectation drives referrals and referrals drive growth. Enjoy your New Years; I will be toasting to your health and a prosperous 2011!
Take care,
D
Friday, December 31, 2010
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Full Recovery in 2011?
“We are becoming increasingly convinced that 2011 will be the year in which economic expansion finally puts down deeper roots and blossoms into a full blown, job creating recovery,” said long time bear Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York.
Good Afternoon!
I was hoping to send out some good news this week. Based on higher than expected consumer spending, manufacturing orders and an improving job market; the economy is starting to see some more consistent signs of improvement. Most economists agree that the possibility of a double dip recession is now very small. This is great news for our industry. As jobs and job security come back on-line we will see an increased demand for home buying. Mortgage rates have been rising this week due to China and other foreign investors tightening their balance sheets and not purchasing as many US Treasury Bills. Once the recovery is in full swing be prepared for a steady rise in interest rates. I have been told December and June are the two biggest months for closings in Atlanta according to MSL. So now is the time to pick up the phone and pound the pavement. We have SEVEN weeks left in 2010 and plenty of time to end the year with a BANG! We are still closing our loans in less than three weeks; so if you have anyone who needs a solid mortgage at great rates please give me a call!
Have a great weekend!
Damian
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A959320101112November 11, 2010
Current Mortgage Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/
Good Afternoon!
I was hoping to send out some good news this week. Based on higher than expected consumer spending, manufacturing orders and an improving job market; the economy is starting to see some more consistent signs of improvement. Most economists agree that the possibility of a double dip recession is now very small. This is great news for our industry. As jobs and job security come back on-line we will see an increased demand for home buying. Mortgage rates have been rising this week due to China and other foreign investors tightening their balance sheets and not purchasing as many US Treasury Bills. Once the recovery is in full swing be prepared for a steady rise in interest rates. I have been told December and June are the two biggest months for closings in Atlanta according to MSL. So now is the time to pick up the phone and pound the pavement. We have SEVEN weeks left in 2010 and plenty of time to end the year with a BANG! We are still closing our loans in less than three weeks; so if you have anyone who needs a solid mortgage at great rates please give me a call!
Have a great weekend!
Damian
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A959320101112November 11, 2010
Current Mortgage Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/
Friday, November 5, 2010
FED QE2
I hope your November is off to a great start. The big news this week is the elections and the FED QE2 (Quantitative Easing) hitting the markets. We have seen interest rates once again rally and push mortgage rates into all time lows. No matter who you voted for, the fact that elections are over is a good thing. The markets hate uncertainty and now that the next wave of political leaders have been established and their agenda have been announced; business and consumers can get back to business. A Republican led Congress is considered “less regulatory and more business-friendly.” Hopefully this will also give banks the needed confidence to start lending again to small businesses. In regards to the QE2, the Fed is taking an aggressive stance on job creation. The FED has agreed to purchase $600 billion in Treasuries. This will hopefully drive down interest rates and that will prompt consumer and business spending. The spending will create more jobs and the jobs will create more spending and the we have a cycle of true economic recovery.
On the mortgage front, we had a major change on the required minimum FHA score going from 620 to 640. However, most borrowers who will fall around 620 should be able to obtain the needed 640 with a little bit of guidance, time and money. I am happy to help any of your clients rebuild their credit. We are still closing most loans in less than three weeks. So if any of your clients need a loan please have them give me a call.
On the mortgage front, we had a major change on the required minimum FHA score going from 620 to 640. However, most borrowers who will fall around 620 should be able to obtain the needed 640 with a little bit of guidance, time and money. I am happy to help any of your clients rebuild their credit. We are still closing most loans in less than three weeks. So if any of your clients need a loan please have them give me a call.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
The FED has the Tools?
Good Morning,
I hope your September is off to a great start! The media continues to focus on the debate of our economy heading into a double dip (a second decline in GDP immediately following a short recovery) and/or into a period of deflation. As I read several articles by different sources one central theme becomes clear. It seems the majority of economists and the Federal Reserve feel at this point a double dip is unlikely. One factor that is fueling the media storm is the mixed bag of economic reports and the fact that the FED has needed to revise GDP growth numbers down. However, it is important to note that we are still growing; just not the rate that was forecasted. Second quarter growth was revised down to 1.6% from the forecasted 2.4% As we move into the last part of 2010 there is a large potential for more volatility in both the equity and stock markets. The FED is also committed to using any means necessary to keep the recovery going (see attached.) This volatility will largely be driven by investors trying to get a read on where we are headed. Bottom line is we are growing; American’s personal savings rate is north of 6% and most companies are sitting on sizable cash reserves. Hopefully we will see some of this cash spent in the market to further fuel the recovery.
I am also hopeful rates will continue to remain at records lows to the end of the year. This will give incentive for first time buyers to enter the market and also allow all buyers to qualify for larger purchases. We have also seen some major underwriting guidelines get released in the past several weeks. Please let me know if I can be of service.
Damian
Current Rates:
Fed ready to take 'unconventional measures'
By Hibah Yousuf, staff reporterAugust 27, 2010: 12:43 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke bluntly acknowledged that the U.S. economic recovery has lost considerable steam, but said the central bank has the necessary policy tools to support continued growth.
"The issue at this stage is not whether we have the tools to help support economic activity and guard against inflation," Bernanke said at the Fed annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. "We do."
Source: http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/27/news/economy/Bernanke_speech/index.htm
I hope your September is off to a great start! The media continues to focus on the debate of our economy heading into a double dip (a second decline in GDP immediately following a short recovery) and/or into a period of deflation. As I read several articles by different sources one central theme becomes clear. It seems the majority of economists and the Federal Reserve feel at this point a double dip is unlikely. One factor that is fueling the media storm is the mixed bag of economic reports and the fact that the FED has needed to revise GDP growth numbers down. However, it is important to note that we are still growing; just not the rate that was forecasted. Second quarter growth was revised down to 1.6% from the forecasted 2.4% As we move into the last part of 2010 there is a large potential for more volatility in both the equity and stock markets. The FED is also committed to using any means necessary to keep the recovery going (see attached.) This volatility will largely be driven by investors trying to get a read on where we are headed. Bottom line is we are growing; American’s personal savings rate is north of 6% and most companies are sitting on sizable cash reserves. Hopefully we will see some of this cash spent in the market to further fuel the recovery.
I am also hopeful rates will continue to remain at records lows to the end of the year. This will give incentive for first time buyers to enter the market and also allow all buyers to qualify for larger purchases. We have also seen some major underwriting guidelines get released in the past several weeks. Please let me know if I can be of service.
Damian
Current Rates:
Fed ready to take 'unconventional measures'
By Hibah Yousuf, staff reporterAugust 27, 2010: 12:43 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke bluntly acknowledged that the U.S. economic recovery has lost considerable steam, but said the central bank has the necessary policy tools to support continued growth.
"The issue at this stage is not whether we have the tools to help support economic activity and guard against inflation," Bernanke said at the Fed annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. "We do."
Source: http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/27/news/economy/Bernanke_speech/index.htm
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Deflation
This week we have seen more downward pressure placed on mortgage rates. However it is interesting that the increased demand in the debt market which normally drives down mortgage rates is not being passed through by the lenders. It seems as if a threshold has been put in place were the banks are no longer willing to lower interest rates. The hot topic is focusing on the “double dip” and if we could enter a period of deflation (a contraction in the volume of available money or credit causing a decline in prices.) On the surface this does not seem bad; but it will further erode home values. Most experts also point to the importance of consumer spending to help spur the economy forward in recovery. Our current average savings rate is 6.4% of after-tax income compared to pre-recession rates of 1 to 2 percent. It is great people are saving more; however, our economy has become dependent on massive consumer spending to create growth. Currently, we are not seeing the necessary spending. I feel like the current environment of experts trying to forecast what is going to happen; are we declining or growing; will probably be here until the end of the year. What I do know is rates are at their lowest levels ever and we have plenty of money to lend. We are still closing our loans on average of 2 weeks and 8 days for an appraisal. Please keep me in mind for any of your clients who need to purchase or refinance.
Have a great weekend and stay cool!
Damian
*Source: Time Vol 176 NO.4 pp 28-31
Top Economists Differ Sharply on Risk of Deflation
ECONOMIST, DEFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT,
The New York Times
06 Aug 2010 08:10 AM ET
When the latest unemployment figures are announced on Friday, all of Wall Street will be watching. But for Richard Berner of Morgan Stanley and Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs, the results will be more than just another marker in an avalanche of data.
Instead, the numbers will be a clue as to which of the two economists is right about where the American economy is headed. Their sharp disagreement over that question adds yet another twist to the fierce rivalry between the firms, Wall Street’s version of the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.
Mr. Hatzius is arguably Wall Street’s most prominent pessimist. He warns that the American economy is poised for a sharp slowdown in the second half of the year. That would send unemployment higher again and raise the risk of deflation. A rare occurrence, deflation can have a devastating effect on a struggling economy as prices and wages fall. He says he may be compelled to downgrade his already anemic growth predictions for the economy.
For months, Mr. Berner has been sticking to a more optimistic forecast, despite growing evidence in favor of Mr. Hatzius’s view. Last week, Mr. Berner was caught by surprise when the federal government reported that the economy grew at a 2..4 percent pace in the second quarter, well below the 3.8 percent he had forecast a month before. Mr. Hatzius came closer to hitting the mark, having projected a 2 percent growth rate.
Mr. Berner and his deputy, David Greenlaw, still expect a pickup in the second half of the year, which would help gradually bring down unemployment. They play down the danger posed by deflation, the malady that deepened the Great Depression and contributed to Japan’s lost decade of the 1990s.
“I’d say at this point the data and the sentiment in the marketplace have certainly gone more Jan’s way than mine,” Mr. Berner said. Some people, he added, “think I’m out of my mind. But I have a conviction in my beliefs that’s based on my analysis.” Full article http://www.cnbc.com/id/38590742
Have a great weekend and stay cool!
Damian
*Source: Time Vol 176 NO.4 pp 28-31
Top Economists Differ Sharply on Risk of Deflation
ECONOMIST, DEFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT,
The New York Times
06 Aug 2010 08:10 AM ET
When the latest unemployment figures are announced on Friday, all of Wall Street will be watching. But for Richard Berner of Morgan Stanley and Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs, the results will be more than just another marker in an avalanche of data.
Instead, the numbers will be a clue as to which of the two economists is right about where the American economy is headed. Their sharp disagreement over that question adds yet another twist to the fierce rivalry between the firms, Wall Street’s version of the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.
Mr. Hatzius is arguably Wall Street’s most prominent pessimist. He warns that the American economy is poised for a sharp slowdown in the second half of the year. That would send unemployment higher again and raise the risk of deflation. A rare occurrence, deflation can have a devastating effect on a struggling economy as prices and wages fall. He says he may be compelled to downgrade his already anemic growth predictions for the economy.
For months, Mr. Berner has been sticking to a more optimistic forecast, despite growing evidence in favor of Mr. Hatzius’s view. Last week, Mr. Berner was caught by surprise when the federal government reported that the economy grew at a 2..4 percent pace in the second quarter, well below the 3.8 percent he had forecast a month before. Mr. Hatzius came closer to hitting the mark, having projected a 2 percent growth rate.
Mr. Berner and his deputy, David Greenlaw, still expect a pickup in the second half of the year, which would help gradually bring down unemployment. They play down the danger posed by deflation, the malady that deepened the Great Depression and contributed to Japan’s lost decade of the 1990s.
“I’d say at this point the data and the sentiment in the marketplace have certainly gone more Jan’s way than mine,” Mr. Berner said. Some people, he added, “think I’m out of my mind. But I have a conviction in my beliefs that’s based on my analysis.” Full article http://www.cnbc.com/id/38590742
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
FHA Loans
Good Morning,
Spring is finally upon us! We have FIVE WEEKS LEFT to get clients under contract to be eligible for the HomeBuyer Tax Credit. NAR reports that 39% of homebuyers are using FHA loans to purchase homes. I personally see over 75% of clients in Atlanta using FHA mortgage loans to make homeownership a reality. Here are some fast facts about FHA that can help you put buyers in homes:
Maximum Loan Amount for Metro Atlanta: $346,250.00
FHA Down payment 3.5%- Borrowers can get a gift for this amount
Minimum Credit Score- 620
Debt to Income Ratio- 55%
6% Seller paid closing costs are allowed (no official word on a change in allowed the amount)
April 5th- The UFMIP will be increasing to 2.25%
The Federal Housing Administration insures these loans helping to keep mortgage rates very low; currently in the low 5%. For most of my clients I can get them a better interest rate on a FHA loan than a Conventional 30 year Fixed, unless they are putting more than 10% down.
At Brayden Capital, we are an FHA Approved direct lender; so we can underwrite and approve FHA loans in-house. Right now my average turn time for an FHA loan is 2 weeks! I am hearing from the market that most banks are quoting 30-45 days to close a loan. Two weeks from the binding date and we can have your client in their new home and you on to making your next sale! So please keep me in mind as the selling season starts and your clients need a lender that can get them to the closing table on time, every time with no surprises.
I hope you have a great weekend and please call me if I can help,
Friday, February 26, 2010
What buyers are buying in Real Estate
Good Afternoon,
I hope February was a solid month for you. It is an interesting time in our industry as this is traditionally the “slow time of year.” However with the Homebuyer’s Tax Credit expiring at the end of April (a buyer must be in a binding contract), many first time home buyers are out in the market place buying homes! According to NAR, first time buyers account for 51% of the home purchased last month and 33% of the homes they purchased were distressed properties. What can we do to take advantage of this trend?
The first is help get the word out. Johnny Isakson who championed both Tax Credits emphasized before the passage of this credit that: “Extending it is important, as long as everybody still understands permanent extension would be bad.”1 We need to let buyers know that if they wait until the summer they will be missing out on $8,000.00! Once we get their attention, how do we get them in a home? FHA, FHA, FHA!
Personally, 95% of my first time buyers are utilizing this program to buy their first home. The underwriting guidelines are very flexible; the minimum credit score is only 620 and we can have the seller pay all the closing costs. So most my first time buyers pay only their down payment of 3.5% at closing and they are in their new home. We underwrite this loan and all our loans in house. This gives you a huge advantage in negotiations because we can close an FHA loan in two weeks with no problems. All our appraisers are local; we do not use national appraisal companies. If you are in a multi-offer situation, putting a short closing date will give you the advantage. We are also offering the FHA 203K loan. This loan allows a buyer to complete up to $30,000 of approved renovations to their purchase. This is a perfect loan for these REO properties. What you need to know here is the turn time is much slower. We need 60 days for closing on a 203K loan. But, where else can a buyer get $30,000.00 for renovations with only 3.5% down?
I hope these ideas and strategies help you generate more sales over the next 8 weeks. Please let me know if I can help in anyway.
Take care,
Damian
770-512-3420
Source
1. http://isakson.senate.gov/floor/2009/110409hbtc.htm
I hope February was a solid month for you. It is an interesting time in our industry as this is traditionally the “slow time of year.” However with the Homebuyer’s Tax Credit expiring at the end of April (a buyer must be in a binding contract), many first time home buyers are out in the market place buying homes! According to NAR, first time buyers account for 51% of the home purchased last month and 33% of the homes they purchased were distressed properties. What can we do to take advantage of this trend?
The first is help get the word out. Johnny Isakson who championed both Tax Credits emphasized before the passage of this credit that: “Extending it is important, as long as everybody still understands permanent extension would be bad.”1 We need to let buyers know that if they wait until the summer they will be missing out on $8,000.00! Once we get their attention, how do we get them in a home? FHA, FHA, FHA!
Personally, 95% of my first time buyers are utilizing this program to buy their first home. The underwriting guidelines are very flexible; the minimum credit score is only 620 and we can have the seller pay all the closing costs. So most my first time buyers pay only their down payment of 3.5% at closing and they are in their new home. We underwrite this loan and all our loans in house. This gives you a huge advantage in negotiations because we can close an FHA loan in two weeks with no problems. All our appraisers are local; we do not use national appraisal companies. If you are in a multi-offer situation, putting a short closing date will give you the advantage. We are also offering the FHA 203K loan. This loan allows a buyer to complete up to $30,000 of approved renovations to their purchase. This is a perfect loan for these REO properties. What you need to know here is the turn time is much slower. We need 60 days for closing on a 203K loan. But, where else can a buyer get $30,000.00 for renovations with only 3.5% down?
I hope these ideas and strategies help you generate more sales over the next 8 weeks. Please let me know if I can help in anyway.
Take care,
Damian
770-512-3420
Source
1. http://isakson.senate.gov/floor/2009/110409hbtc.htm
Friday, January 9, 2009
Start of the New Year
It seems that we all are getting back to work after the holidays. Mortgage rates continue to jump around historic lows creating a demand for refinance and purchase mortgage business. I have seen an uptick in home buyers calling for prequalification this week. I think it is important to stress to clients that these low rates are a product of the FED’s commitment to buy Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS.) The Fed will start buying the MBS this month, creating a market out of thin air. Once the FED runs out of money look for mortgage rates to being to increase, to reflect current market conditions. I hope that they will be able to keep rates low through out the remainder of 2009. These low rates will give consumers incentive to purchase a home. Other important factors making home ownership a great decision right now are the first time tax credit, plenty of inventory and that homes are “on sale.” All these factors do not happen often and now is the time to purchase.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Rates are Falling!
There has been a lot of exciting events in the news. This week we continued to see mortgage rates fall as news of a pending bailout for the big three automobile companies has sputtered to a halt. It also seems as if the 4.5% mortgage rate Treasury program is gaining some momentum and Americans’ debt shrinks for the first time ever. President-elect Obama’s team has expressed interest in supporting the Treasury’s program to purchase Fannie and Freddie securities that are backed by the low rate loans. This is substantial because the outgoing Treasury leaders do not want to start this program just to see it die in January. The Treasury has now placed this program on the fast tract and hopefully we will see something soon. Mr. Obama’s support might make this program a reality and we all know this could have a great effect on the housing and real estate industry!
Last night, the Senate squashed any hopes for an immediate bailout for the auto industry. The fear is that allowing the big three to fail will have large implications for the entire economy due to the fact all the companies are already holding a large amount of debt. If they fail, then the debt will not be repaid and financial institutions will have to take another huge loss. In addition to all the jobs that would be lost directly and indirectly due to the auto failure, I imagine that the government will provide some sort of assistance to prevent this failure. Until this issue is resolved look for continued volatility in all financial markets.
Some positive news is that consumers for the first time ever reduced household debt by about $30 billion dollars. This is both good and bad. It is good because less debt creates more financial freedom for consumers in the long run. Consumers have also started to increase their savings rate largely due to the economic fear and homeowners can no longer rely on house appreciation to create wealth. It is bad because our economy has come to rely on consumers spending every penny they make to create growth.
Damian Cook
Interest Rate Trend Forecast
Long Term (20 days out and greater) – Fractionally lower interest rates
Sources:
Americans’ Debt Shrink-First Time Ever
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/11/news/economy/flow_of_funds/index.htm?postversion=2008121118
Obama Team Boosts Paulson Proposal to Spur U.S. Home Purchases
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=adXuRpUpScIo&refer=economy
Auto Bailout collapses in Senate
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/11/news/companies/auto_bailout_senate/index.htm?postversion=2008121208
Market Alert by Larry Baer
Last night, the Senate squashed any hopes for an immediate bailout for the auto industry. The fear is that allowing the big three to fail will have large implications for the entire economy due to the fact all the companies are already holding a large amount of debt. If they fail, then the debt will not be repaid and financial institutions will have to take another huge loss. In addition to all the jobs that would be lost directly and indirectly due to the auto failure, I imagine that the government will provide some sort of assistance to prevent this failure. Until this issue is resolved look for continued volatility in all financial markets.
Some positive news is that consumers for the first time ever reduced household debt by about $30 billion dollars. This is both good and bad. It is good because less debt creates more financial freedom for consumers in the long run. Consumers have also started to increase their savings rate largely due to the economic fear and homeowners can no longer rely on house appreciation to create wealth. It is bad because our economy has come to rely on consumers spending every penny they make to create growth.
Damian Cook
Interest Rate Trend Forecast
Long Term (20 days out and greater) – Fractionally lower interest rates
Sources:
Americans’ Debt Shrink-First Time Ever
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/11/news/economy/flow_of_funds/index.htm?postversion=2008121118
Obama Team Boosts Paulson Proposal to Spur U.S. Home Purchases
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=adXuRpUpScIo&refer=economy
Auto Bailout collapses in Senate
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/11/news/companies/auto_bailout_senate/index.htm?postversion=2008121208
Market Alert by Larry Baer
Friday, December 5, 2008
4.5% Mortgage
The big news the in the headlines this week is the possibility of mortgage rates dropping to 4.5% in order to boost housing sales. I am very excited about the possibility of this program. It will give an incentive to buyers to get in the market, help reduce standing inventory and have a far reaching economic ripple effect. If first-time homebuyers start buying, this enables those who desire to move into a higher-priced home, the ability to do so; thus, causing a positive chain reaction. The program will be limited to home purchase only. The program might be attractive to lawmakers because it has the ability to get the economy back on track by fixing the housing problem with out bailing out homeowners and lenders. This program will need support from key lawmakers and the incoming Treasury Department Chairman. However, right now the program is still a “pie in the sky.”
Additionally, Bernanke has been in the news asking for more assistance from public funds stating that the private sector is unable to fix this mess on its own. He also feels the central bank can not fix the economy solely through rate cuts and emergency lending programs. The FDIC Chairman is calling for part of the $700 billion bailout to be used quickly for loan modification to prevent further foreclosure. It is wonderful to see all these ideas coming forward to attempt to fix the crisis. However, I feel we need more coordinated efforts across all organizations and the government. Maybe it is time for the President-elect Obama to step forward a take an active roll in getting everyone on the same page. Only time will tell!
Interest Rate Trend Forecast
Short Term (Next 20 Days) - Steady interest rates
Long Term (20 days out and greater) – Fractionally lower interest rates
Sources:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/treasury-may-set-mortgage-rates/story.aspx?guid=%7B2997E462-B056-43E3-AF13-70EB82403632%7D&dist=msr_27
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=abINDLzbaE54&refer=economy#
Market Alert by Larry Baer
Additionally, Bernanke has been in the news asking for more assistance from public funds stating that the private sector is unable to fix this mess on its own. He also feels the central bank can not fix the economy solely through rate cuts and emergency lending programs. The FDIC Chairman is calling for part of the $700 billion bailout to be used quickly for loan modification to prevent further foreclosure. It is wonderful to see all these ideas coming forward to attempt to fix the crisis. However, I feel we need more coordinated efforts across all organizations and the government. Maybe it is time for the President-elect Obama to step forward a take an active roll in getting everyone on the same page. Only time will tell!
Interest Rate Trend Forecast
Short Term (Next 20 Days) - Steady interest rates
Long Term (20 days out and greater) – Fractionally lower interest rates
Sources:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/treasury-may-set-mortgage-rates/story.aspx?guid=%7B2997E462-B056-43E3-AF13-70EB82403632%7D&dist=msr_27
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=abINDLzbaE54&refer=economy#
Market Alert by Larry Baer
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Lower Interest Rates and $800 Billion
Connecting the Headlines
Happy Early Turkey Day!
I have a lot to be thankful for this year. My wife and new baby girl are healthy and I am surrounded by family, friends and the opportunity that comes every day with living in the greatest country in the world! It can’t get any better!
Yesterday was big step forward in our economic recovery. In addition to the economic bailout passed earlier this year, the Federal Reserve and Treasury department unveiled an $800 billion plan to attempt to jump start bank lending to consumers and small businesses. The program will make $200 billion available from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to holders of consumer debt. The Federal Reserve will also purchase up to $500 billion in mortgage backed securities (MBS.)
There are a couple of reasons for the excitement surrounding this announcement. Firstly, this is designed to work along side the bailout; not just to prevent financial companies from failing, but to get banks lending again to consumers. Secondly, since October there has been no market for MBS. Banks buy and sell MBS to help raise needed capital or invest money to achieve a return for their shareholders. When the MBS market collapsed; banks could not sell off their MBS (loans they have already made) in order to get new money to lend to customers for new loans. This is at the heart of the credit crunch. The FED will begin creating demand by purchasing MBS from the banks creating liquidity. Hopefully, this will continue to unfreeze the credit markets.
Mortgage rates responded immediately by dropping almost 0.5% yesterday bringing the current rates more in line with the Treasury Bills (T-Bills.) How long rates remain low is anyone’s guess. In the long term, rates will have to rise to compensate for the huge amount of debt that will have to be sold for the government to continue to operate and pay all these programs.
The great news is our elected and industry leaders continue to work together across party lines to try and solve the current financial mess. Another step forward to get us closer to recovery! We need to all be thankful we live in country were we have plenty of opportunity and the freedom to pursue happiness.
I hope you have a great and safe Thanksgiving.
Interest Rate Trend Forecast
Short Term (Next 20 Days) - Steady to fractionally lower interest rates
Long Term (20 days out and greater) - Lower interest rates
Sources:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/25/news/economy/paulson_consumer/index.htm?postversion=2008112514
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/26/real_estate/mortgage_rates_plummet/index.htm?postversion=2008112611
Market Alert by Larry Baer
Happy Early Turkey Day!
I have a lot to be thankful for this year. My wife and new baby girl are healthy and I am surrounded by family, friends and the opportunity that comes every day with living in the greatest country in the world! It can’t get any better!
Yesterday was big step forward in our economic recovery. In addition to the economic bailout passed earlier this year, the Federal Reserve and Treasury department unveiled an $800 billion plan to attempt to jump start bank lending to consumers and small businesses. The program will make $200 billion available from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to holders of consumer debt. The Federal Reserve will also purchase up to $500 billion in mortgage backed securities (MBS.)
There are a couple of reasons for the excitement surrounding this announcement. Firstly, this is designed to work along side the bailout; not just to prevent financial companies from failing, but to get banks lending again to consumers. Secondly, since October there has been no market for MBS. Banks buy and sell MBS to help raise needed capital or invest money to achieve a return for their shareholders. When the MBS market collapsed; banks could not sell off their MBS (loans they have already made) in order to get new money to lend to customers for new loans. This is at the heart of the credit crunch. The FED will begin creating demand by purchasing MBS from the banks creating liquidity. Hopefully, this will continue to unfreeze the credit markets.
Mortgage rates responded immediately by dropping almost 0.5% yesterday bringing the current rates more in line with the Treasury Bills (T-Bills.) How long rates remain low is anyone’s guess. In the long term, rates will have to rise to compensate for the huge amount of debt that will have to be sold for the government to continue to operate and pay all these programs.
The great news is our elected and industry leaders continue to work together across party lines to try and solve the current financial mess. Another step forward to get us closer to recovery! We need to all be thankful we live in country were we have plenty of opportunity and the freedom to pursue happiness.
I hope you have a great and safe Thanksgiving.
Interest Rate Trend Forecast
Short Term (Next 20 Days) - Steady to fractionally lower interest rates
Long Term (20 days out and greater) - Lower interest rates
Sources:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/25/news/economy/paulson_consumer/index.htm?postversion=2008112514
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/26/real_estate/mortgage_rates_plummet/index.htm?postversion=2008112611
Market Alert by Larry Baer
Friday, November 21, 2008
Connecting the Headlines- On The Road to Recovery
Connecting the Headlines
It is my guess that no one would argue that we are not in a recession. Several signs have become evident including poor earning reports from Wall Street, the decline of job creation and production and the increase in unemployment. The most important question on everyone’s mind is how long will this recession last? The good news is that by the time we accept the fact we are in a recession; we have been in one for several months. Most professional forecasters surveyed by the FED agreed that the recession started last April and should last a total of 14 months. The GDP is expected to shrink by 2.9% in Q4.
Is it reasonable to expect the recovery to start in summer of 2009? According to Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffery Lacker it is. He believes the current monetary policy is “quite stimulative” and that the major economic shocks that hurt the economy are already behind us or starting to subside. So, is it possible that the worst is here or already behind us? If so, the times are tough right now; but not that bad. Inflation is a non-issue and gas is $1.83 a gallon near my house. This means that consumers will keep more money in their pockets due to falling prices on food and gas.
Another interesting story was on the Associated Press-GfK poll that was conducted Nov 6-10th and surveyed 1,001 adults. It found that 72% of Americans believe that Obama will fix the economy. This included 44% of Republicans surveyed! Regardless of where your political affiliations lie; if the majority of Americans believe Obama will take the steps to get the economy back on track; this is one of the keys to our recovery. Consumer confidence which you hear about all the time in the news accounts for nearly 2/3 of all spending! If the average American starts to spend money again, the economy will churn back to life. The bottom line is that the economy will get better soon and we all need to do our part by staying positive and working hard!
Interest Rate Trend Forecast
Short Term (Next 20 Days) - Steady to fractionally lower interest rates
Long Term (20 days out and greater) - Lower interest rates
Sources:
Fed’s Lacker: Reasonable to expect rebound in 2009; Reuters
For Full Article Click the link below:
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE4AK3Y120081121?sp=true
Forecasters: U.S. in 14 Month recession; Reuters
For Full article click below
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4AG54L20081117?sp=true
Poll: 72% are confident Oboma will fix economy (AP)
For Full Article Click Below
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/nov/11/poll-72-are-confident-obama-will-fix-economy/
Market Alert by Larry Baer
It is my guess that no one would argue that we are not in a recession. Several signs have become evident including poor earning reports from Wall Street, the decline of job creation and production and the increase in unemployment. The most important question on everyone’s mind is how long will this recession last? The good news is that by the time we accept the fact we are in a recession; we have been in one for several months. Most professional forecasters surveyed by the FED agreed that the recession started last April and should last a total of 14 months. The GDP is expected to shrink by 2.9% in Q4.
Is it reasonable to expect the recovery to start in summer of 2009? According to Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffery Lacker it is. He believes the current monetary policy is “quite stimulative” and that the major economic shocks that hurt the economy are already behind us or starting to subside. So, is it possible that the worst is here or already behind us? If so, the times are tough right now; but not that bad. Inflation is a non-issue and gas is $1.83 a gallon near my house. This means that consumers will keep more money in their pockets due to falling prices on food and gas.
Another interesting story was on the Associated Press-GfK poll that was conducted Nov 6-10th and surveyed 1,001 adults. It found that 72% of Americans believe that Obama will fix the economy. This included 44% of Republicans surveyed! Regardless of where your political affiliations lie; if the majority of Americans believe Obama will take the steps to get the economy back on track; this is one of the keys to our recovery. Consumer confidence which you hear about all the time in the news accounts for nearly 2/3 of all spending! If the average American starts to spend money again, the economy will churn back to life. The bottom line is that the economy will get better soon and we all need to do our part by staying positive and working hard!
Interest Rate Trend Forecast
Short Term (Next 20 Days) - Steady to fractionally lower interest rates
Long Term (20 days out and greater) - Lower interest rates
Sources:
Fed’s Lacker: Reasonable to expect rebound in 2009; Reuters
For Full Article Click the link below:
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE4AK3Y120081121?sp=true
Forecasters: U.S. in 14 Month recession; Reuters
For Full article click below
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4AG54L20081117?sp=true
Poll: 72% are confident Oboma will fix economy (AP)
For Full Article Click Below
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/nov/11/poll-72-are-confident-obama-will-fix-economy/
Market Alert by Larry Baer
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Economic Update Nov 13th
Economic Update Nov 13th The recent drop in the stock market was fueled by Secretary Paulson's announcement the Government will not buy bad assets from banks; the market reacted negatively to this news. Many felt this was expected as purchasing assets is more of a challenge and just as many are upset and consider this a flip flop, causing more concern. The main issue is no one really knows how to determine the value of these assets. Even after they were to determine the value once the banks sell these assets they then are required to take a write down, which would further devalue the banks. Paulson has indicated he is more focused now to invest money directly in firms that provide financing to the broader economy.
As for the bailout planned outlined in the summer, the government committed $700 Billion, this is to come in 2 installments of $350 Billion. Of the first installment they have used $290 Billion, the second installment will not come until after the new president is in place and congress will again vote on how to use these funds. The good news is the additional money invested into AIG this week has been interpreted to be a win for Banks as they will now be able to recoup $35 billion in collateral. This will reduce the amount of future write downs the banks would have been required to take if AIG had failed and was not able to deliver on the insurance contracts. Ultimately the sooner the confidence amongst banks is achieved the better for the overall economy as the continued tightening of lending has caused a ripple effect to all consumers and businesses.
So to date we have passed the first cause of uncertainty in regards to the economy with the election of a new president. Regardless of your political affiliation with the election behind us it does provide some clarity as to what steps will be taken. As the market has its own expectations of what each potential president would do to restore confidence knowing who will be president is something that was needed. As for predictions of the market analysts now are expecting the Fed to further cut rates, currently there is 84 percent chance that the U.S. central bank will lower interest rates by 75 basis points to 0.5 percent at its next meeting, compared with a 58 percent probability a week ago. Most analysts feel at this point the FED is going to keep cutting rates until something happens that is positive for economic growth. To date more than $29 trillion has been erased from the value of global equity markets this year and the S&P 500 is down 42 percent as credit losses and write downs neared $950 billion.
Although the possibility of a rate cut seems to be more realistic it does not in turn mean mortgage rates will drop significantly, as the lending institutions are keeping their margins higher and charging a greater premium for money than in the past. So anyway waiting for rates to drop further needs to realize that is not something Wall Street wants to occur, dropping rates by the Fed is simply meant to instill greater flow of cash amongst banks not consumers.
With the value of Homes in Georgia remaining stronger than the national average it is just another fact to that illustrates the benefit of homeownership in GA. (See chart above) Ultimately I still feel strongly that anyone looking to buy; the current market provides a once in a lifetime opportunity with the cost of homes down and borrowing cost somewhat reduced for the time being, action now can save them thousands of dollars later.
As for the bailout planned outlined in the summer, the government committed $700 Billion, this is to come in 2 installments of $350 Billion. Of the first installment they have used $290 Billion, the second installment will not come until after the new president is in place and congress will again vote on how to use these funds. The good news is the additional money invested into AIG this week has been interpreted to be a win for Banks as they will now be able to recoup $35 billion in collateral. This will reduce the amount of future write downs the banks would have been required to take if AIG had failed and was not able to deliver on the insurance contracts. Ultimately the sooner the confidence amongst banks is achieved the better for the overall economy as the continued tightening of lending has caused a ripple effect to all consumers and businesses.
So to date we have passed the first cause of uncertainty in regards to the economy with the election of a new president. Regardless of your political affiliation with the election behind us it does provide some clarity as to what steps will be taken. As the market has its own expectations of what each potential president would do to restore confidence knowing who will be president is something that was needed. As for predictions of the market analysts now are expecting the Fed to further cut rates, currently there is 84 percent chance that the U.S. central bank will lower interest rates by 75 basis points to 0.5 percent at its next meeting, compared with a 58 percent probability a week ago. Most analysts feel at this point the FED is going to keep cutting rates until something happens that is positive for economic growth. To date more than $29 trillion has been erased from the value of global equity markets this year and the S&P 500 is down 42 percent as credit losses and write downs neared $950 billion.
Although the possibility of a rate cut seems to be more realistic it does not in turn mean mortgage rates will drop significantly, as the lending institutions are keeping their margins higher and charging a greater premium for money than in the past. So anyway waiting for rates to drop further needs to realize that is not something Wall Street wants to occur, dropping rates by the Fed is simply meant to instill greater flow of cash amongst banks not consumers.
With the value of Homes in Georgia remaining stronger than the national average it is just another fact to that illustrates the benefit of homeownership in GA. (See chart above) Ultimately I still feel strongly that anyone looking to buy; the current market provides a once in a lifetime opportunity with the cost of homes down and borrowing cost somewhat reduced for the time being, action now can save them thousands of dollars later.
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